In the early 1990s, the Clinton Administration became aware that the North Koreans were operating a Soviet-style so-called heavy-water nuclear reactor (and constructing two much bigger ones) with the intention of using it to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons as well as (supposedly) civilian electricity. The United States and North Korea struck a deal, the so-called Agreed Framework. Under the terms of this deal, the North Koreans would halt operations of their heavy water reactor and place around 8000 previously irradiated, plutonium-laden fuel rods in storage under International Atomic Energy Agency supervision. In return, the U.S. promised to provide 500,000 metric tons per year of fuel oil and begin construction in North Korea of replacement light (normal) water nuclear reactors like those commonly used in the United States. (Interestingly, before he left to become President Bush’s Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld was on the board of the company who made $200 million on the sale of these light-water reactors). Such a light-water system produces far less plutonium in the generation of electricity than a heavy-water one, and so it was seen to be a much lower nuclear proliferation risk. The Agreed Framework was by far the most significant working relationship between these two technically-still-at-war countries and was widely seen as the primary vehicle available to bring North Korea into good diplomatic standing with the rest of the international community. Initial construction on U.S. sponsored light-water reactors began with joint American-North Korean concrete poured in a cooperative effort at Kumho, North Korea in August 7, 2002.
The kimchee hit the fan only two months later. After President Bush branded North Korea an “Axis of Evil” country in January 2002, in his post-9/11 State Of The Union Address, the Bush Adminstration announced on October 16, 2002, that North Korea had broken the Agreed Framework (note the report at this link is dated incorrectly as January 7,2002, instead of its actual publication date of January 7, 2003). The North Korean transgression was basically a secret experimental program to test prototypes of gas centrifuge machines which could enrich naturally-mined uranium to weapons-grade levels. The CIA had detected efforts by the North Koreans to purchase large amounts of special high-strength aluminum on the international market which could be used to build a gigantic production plant based on their experiments, requiring at least five more years of construction. Under the worst case scenario, then, a North Korean uranium-based nuclear weapon was a threat at least a half-decade away.
The Bush Adminstration chose not to use this five years of breathing room to attempt a diplomatic solution which might salvage the Agreed Framework. Instead, work on the light water reactor at Kumho was immediately halted. Perhaps more importantly to the North Koreans, in the dead of winter on November 19, 2002, the Bush Adminstration halted U.S. shipments of fuel oil to North Korea.
This not-so-subtle attempt by the United States to strong-arm North Korea into backing down on its nuclear program was a gamble that failed and is now in danger of spiraling out of control. Rather than kowtow to American wishes, the North Koreans promptly withdrew from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, kicked the IAEA out of their country, have apparently completed recovering the plutonium from their previously stored fuel rods, and are now rumored to be preparing for a December 2003 nuke test. The U.S. has never been in a declared state of war with a demonstrated nuclear power. Considering the 1950s Korean War fighting stopped with what was only supposed to be a temporary wartime cease-fire, we may in a few months be faced with that nightmare.
So…instead of trying diplomacy first to avoid possible Korean uranium bombs in 2008, in less than a year we’ve spiraled down to facing actual Korean plutonium bombs RIGHT NOW. And we have people saying national security is too important to be handled by anybody but the Bush Administration and other conservatives? Folks, this isn’t a conservative crisis or liberal crisis – it’s an American crisis. We could sure use the wisdom of America’s greatest diplomat in the months to come on this one…