The indirect, long-term effects of armed conflict, particularly worsening food insecurity and reduced access to education, are discussed in the International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies. The study reveals that conflicts are more economically damaging than the immediate physical destruction of war. The conclusion is drawn from data covering 169 countries over an almost three-decade period beginning in 1990. The work could give pause for thought for rethinking how we design humanitarian aid and post-conflict recovery strategies.
By using a path-analytical approach, the study maps out the interconnected ways conflict influences national outcomes, tracing how disruptions to food systems and education ultimately reduce future income. This approach stands in contrast to standard analyses that examine the direct effects of conflict in isolation, such as infrastructure damage or population displacement. As such, it explores how war erodes a nation’s human capital, the health of its citizens, the national knowledge and skills base, and how this occurs long before those detrimental effects become visible in the simplistic economic accounting of gross domestic product.
The findings are overwhelming. The work shows that over time, the economic harm caused by deteriorated nutrition and lost schooling is about 1.5 times greater than the damage wrought by bombed buildings or burned-out factories. In other words, while war’s immediate effects grab headlines, its most enduring costs are often borne quietly by the young and vulnerable.
Central to this argument are the three D’s of conflict: destruction, diversion, and disruption. “Destruction” refers not just to physical infrastructure loss but also to public health degradation, a phenomenon sometimes described as the third army of war. Diversion involves the redirection of public resources away from essential services like schools and hospitals toward military spending. Disruption captures the systemic breakdowns, such as severed supply chains or institutional collapse, which make it difficult to sustain basic services even where they still exist.
By interfering with food security and access to education, these mechanisms have compounding effects on a population’s long-term productivity. Children who are malnourished or out of school during conflict are less likely to contribute effectively to the economy years later, weakening the foundation for recovery. The findings thus challenge the emphasis in humanitarian response, which prioritizes short-term survival for obvious reasons. However, a broader approach is need to safeguard education and nutrition, particularly for children, and so the national future.
Marktanner, M. and Merkel, A. (2025) ‘From conflict to empty stomachs, empty classrooms, and empty wallets’, Int. J. Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Vol. 21, No. 3, pp.244–264.